Has the risk of terrorism vanished?

The winds of the Arab Spring continue to blow, reminding us that the desire for political freedom is a compelling and powerful force for change.  Populist uprisings in Arab nations show the will of the human spirit, as common people make uncommon personal sacrifices.

What does this civil resistance in the Mediterranean world mean for those of us on this side of the Atlantic?

Because this movement is occurring simultaneously with strikes against Al-Qaeda leadership,  some have wondered whether the mounting desire for democracy among Muslim nations spells the death of radical jihad terrorism.

But intelligence analysts at Risk Management Solutions (RMS) in the US warn that such conclusions are unwarranted.

Al-Qaeda has suffered some crippling blows, including the death of Osama bin Laden and other key operatives.  However, “the strength of Al-Qaeda…has never been its infrastructure, leadership or membership per say, but its ideology,” RMS says in a recent report.*

And RMS asserts that ideology is alive and well, and living in North America.

Security analysts are now focused on isolated, home-grown attackers.  These may be “lone wolf” operatives with limited technical and logistical ability, but capable of random acts of violence.  Without much support or planning, these are difficult to identify, isolate, and neutralize.  And although these attacks will be much smaller than those grabbing the headlines, the fear is they could become more frequent in future months.

The current conflict in Syria poses a multi-layered challenge for western governments: if American or other western troops – even under the auspices of the UN – were to be seen on the streets of Damascus even in a “peace-keeping” role, the backlash in the west could be severe.

Because most commercial properties in Canada have no terrorism coverage, the risk in this country continues to be significant.  The Canadian government needs to structure a terrorism financial backstop, as exists in the US and elsewhere.

*Risk Management Solutions – Terrorism Risk Briefing June 2011
other info from Risk Management Solutions – Terrorism Risk Briefing January 2012

Tags: arab spring, commercial insurance, exclusion, political freedom, terrorism